Nigeria’s economic activity recorded a marginal decline in April 2026, ending 16 consecutive months of expansion, as the composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dropped to 49.4 points, according to data released by the Central Bank of Nigeria.
The PMI, a key indicator of business conditions, fell below the 50-point benchmark that separates expansion from contraction, signalling a mild slowdown in overall economic activity during the period under review.
The survey, conducted between April 6 and 10, 2026, covered 1,900 purchasing and supply executives across the industry, services, and agriculture sectors. Findings showed that 19 of the 36 subsectors surveyed recorded contractions, while one remained unchanged, pointing to broad-based weakness across the economy.
Industry, services contract as agriculture sustains growth
Sectoral data indicated that both the industry and services sectors experienced contractions, while agriculture remained the only sector to sustain expansion.
The industry PMI stood at 49.5 points, reflecting a mild contraction. Within the sector, new orders and employment indices declined to 49.5 and 48.7 points respectively, while output recorded marginal growth at 50.2 points. Raw materials inventory also dropped to 46.8 points, indicating reduced input accumulation.
The services sector recorded a sharper slowdown, with its PMI falling to 48.8 points—its first contraction after 14 consecutive months of expansion. Key indicators such as business activity, new orders, employment, and inventories all declined. Transportation and warehousing led the contraction, while educational services posted the strongest growth.
In contrast, the agriculture sector remained resilient, with its PMI at 50.2 points, marking the 21st consecutive month of expansion. General farming activities and employment remained in growth territory, supported by continued activity in key subsectors such as forestry.
Weakening momentum across key indicators
Across the broader economy, major PMI components pointed to weakening momentum. The output index fell to 49.7 points, new orders to 48.4 points, and employment to 49.6 points. The stock of raw materials index also declined to 48.7 points.
The CBN attributed the slowdown partly to heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which may have dampened business sentiment and disrupted economic activity.
However, supplier delivery times improved, with the index rising to 50.9 points, suggesting faster response times from suppliers.
Inflation pressures persist
Price pressures remained evident during the period, as both input and output price indices increased by 3.2 points in April, indicating rising production costs and selling prices. In some sectors, particularly industry and agriculture, output prices grew faster than input costs on a month-on-month basis.
Overall, 16 subsectors recorded expansion during the month, led by forestry, while 19 contracted, with primary metals posting the steepest decline.
The PMI is a diffusion index that tracks changes in business conditions, including production, new orders, and employment. A reading above 50 points indicates expansion, below 50 signals contraction, while 50 reflects no change in activity.
