Nigeria’s non-oil sector remained the primary driver of economic growth in the first quarter of 2026, while the agricultural sector recorded a significant rebound, according to the latest GDP report.
The report showed that the economy continued to benefit from stronger activity across telecommunications, trade, financial services, manufacturing, construction, and agriculture, reinforcing signs of broader economic resilience outside the oil sector.
What the report is saying
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data showed that the non-oil sector continued to dominate economic activity during the quarter.
▪ The non-oil sector expanded by 3.94% in real terms and accounted for 96.08% of total real GDP.
▪ The services sector remained the largest contributor to output, accounting for 57.73% of GDP, with year-on-year growth of 4.31%.
▪ Agriculture rebounded strongly, recording 3.15% real growth, compared to just 0.07% in the corresponding period of 2025.
Key contributors to growth included telecommunications, crop production, trade, cement manufacturing, financial services, transportation, construction, and real estate activities.
More insights
The oil sector also posted moderate expansion despite a decline in crude oil production volumes during the quarter.
▪ Average crude oil production fell to 1.55 million barrels per day in Q1 2026, down from 1.62 million barrels per day in Q1 2025.
▪ Despite lower production, the oil sector grew by 2.57% in real terms, compared to 1.87% growth recorded a year earlier.
▪ The oil sector contributed 3.92% to total real GDP, slightly lower than the 3.97% recorded in Q1 2025.
▪ Construction activity remained strong, growing by 6.38%, while manufacturing recorded nominal growth of 10.22%.
Overall, the industrial sector maintained stable momentum, posting 3.50% growth in Q1 2026 compared to 3.42% in the same period last year.
What you should know
Nigeria’s economy had previously expanded by 4.07% year-on-year in Q4 2025, continuing a gradual recovery trend supported by reforms and stronger non-oil sector activity.
International institutions have also maintained a cautiously optimistic outlook on the country’s growth trajectory.
▪ The World Bank recently upgraded Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.4%, up from an earlier estimate of 3.7%.
▪ The Bank also maintained its 4.4% growth projection for 2027.
▪ S&P Global Ratings upgraded Nigeria’s long-term sovereign credit rating to ‘B’ from ‘B-’, while affirming a stable outlook.
Analysts say continued expansion in non-oil sectors, alongside improving macroeconomic reforms and investor confidence, could further strengthen Nigeria’s medium-term growth outlook despite ongoing inflationary and external pressures.
