Nigeria’s headline inflation rate increased to 15.38% in March 2026, up from 15.06% recorded in February, according to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The figures indicate a renewed uptick in price pressures, with both annual and monthly indicators showing rising costs across several sectors of the economy.
While inflation remains lower than levels recorded a year earlier, the latest data suggests that short-term price increases are accelerating, raising concerns about persistent cost pressures.
Inflation rises across key indicators
According to the NBS report, headline inflation rose by 0.32 percentage points, increasing from 15.06% in February to 15.38% in March.
Monthly inflation also increased sharply:
- Month-on-month inflation: 4.18% (up from 2.01% in February)
- 12-month average inflation: 20.05% (up from 18.58% in March 2025)
Inflation trends also differed between urban and rural areas:
- Urban inflation: 14.64% year-on-year
- Rural inflation: 17.22% year-on-year
The data suggests that price increases accelerated significantly in March compared with the previous month.
Global tensions adding to inflation pressure
The latest inflation figures come amid heightened global economic uncertainty, particularly due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Instability around the strategic Strait of Hormuz—a key transit route for global oil shipments—has raised concerns about potential supply disruptions.
Higher crude oil prices triggered by these tensions often translate into higher fuel and transportation costs, which can drive inflation in import-dependent economies like Nigeria.
Historically, such global shocks have triggered inflation spikes in emerging markets, especially through rising energy and logistics costs.
Mixed trends across food and core inflation
A breakdown of inflation components reveals mixed movements across food and core categories.
- Food inflation: 14.31% year-on-year (down from 25.22% in March 2025)
- Monthly food inflation: 4.17% (down slightly from 4.69% in February)
Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural products and energy prices, showed different trends:
- Core inflation: 16.21% year-on-year (down from 27.12% in March 2025)
- Monthly core inflation: 4.03% (up from 0.89% in February)
The data suggests that annual inflation pressures are easing, but short-term price momentum is increasing.
Rural inflation rises faster
Additional indicators highlight a widening gap between urban and rural inflation dynamics.
- Urban month-on-month inflation: 3.16% (up from 2.55%)
- Rural month-on-month inflation: 6.73% (up sharply from 0.71%)
The twelve-month average rural inflation rate rose to 19.74%, compared with 16.81% in March 2025, indicating stronger price pressures outside urban centers.
Analysts say the trend reflects higher transportation costs, supply constraints, and food distribution challenges in rural areas.
Inflation outlook remains uncertain
Inflation has remained one of Nigeria’s most persistent macroeconomic challenges, driven by factors such as:
- Food price volatility
- Exchange rate fluctuations
- Supply chain constraints
- Rising transportation and energy costs
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) previously projected that inflation could average 12.94% in 2026, supported by easing food prices and a decline in petrol costs.
However, the sharp rise in monthly inflation in March suggests that price pressures may remain elevated in the near term, keeping inflation risks firmly in focus for policymakers and businesses.
