Nigeria’s inflation rate rose marginally in May 2026, highlighting the continued pressure of rising consumer prices on households and businesses despite signs that the pace of price increases may be moderating.
According to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), headline inflation increased to 15.93% in May 2026 from 15.69% recorded in April. The CPI also rose to 140.7 points, up from 138.3 points in the preceding month, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures across the economy.
The latest figures indicate that while inflation remains elevated, some underlying indicators suggest a gradual slowdown in the speed at which prices are rising.
Headline inflation edges higher
The NBS reported that headline inflation rose to 15.93% on a year-on-year basis in May, reversing the slight moderation observed in previous months.
However, month-on-month inflation slowed to 1.75%, compared with 2.13% recorded in April, indicating that although prices continued to rise, they did so at a slower pace than in the previous month.
The data revealed varying trends across urban and rural areas:
- Urban inflation stood at 16.07% year-on-year, while the monthly rate increased slightly to 1.99% from 1.86% in April.
- Rural inflation came in at 15.60% year-on-year, with monthly inflation slowing significantly to 1.17% from 2.80% recorded in the previous month.
The divergence suggests that price pressures remained stronger in urban centres, while inflationary momentum eased more noticeably in rural communities.
Food inflation continues to moderate
Food inflation, which remains one of the most closely monitored indicators due to its direct impact on household welfare, showed signs of moderation compared with the previous year.
The food inflation rate stood at 16.96% year-on-year in May 2026, significantly lower than the 24.55% recorded during the same period in 2025.
On a monthly basis, food inflation also slowed to 2.98%, down from 3.63% in April.
According to the NBS, movements in food prices were influenced by changes in the cost of key agricultural commodities and staples, including onions, maize, tomatoes, fresh pepper, cassava flour, wheat grain, yam tubers, sweet potatoes, ginger, plantain, cowpea, crayfish, water yam, and egusi.
While food prices remain elevated, the moderation in annual and monthly food inflation suggests some easing of supply-side pressures compared with previous periods.
Core inflation remains elevated
Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy prices, remained relatively high during the month.
The NBS reported that core inflation stood at 16.82% year-on-year, while the monthly rate increased to 1.94% from 1.03% in April.
The increase in monthly core inflation suggests that underlying price pressures within the broader economy remain persistent despite improvements in some food-related indicators.
Analysts often monitor core inflation closely because it provides insight into longer-term inflation trends that are less affected by temporary fluctuations in food and energy prices.
Longer-term inflation indicators improve
Despite the uptick in headline inflation, longer-term inflation measures showed encouraging signs of improvement.
The average annual food inflation rate for the 12 months ending May 2026 declined to 16.99%, compared with 33.21% recorded a year earlier.
Similarly:
- The 12-month average urban inflation rate fell to 18.27% from 32.55% in May 2025.
- The corresponding rural inflation average declined to 18.19% from 28.36%.
- The 12-month average core inflation rate moderated to 19.59%, down from 27.05% recorded in the same period last year.
These trends suggest that while price pressures remain a concern, inflation has eased considerably from the exceptionally high levels experienced in 2025.
Global factors continue to influence domestic prices
The latest inflation data comes amid renewed global commodity market pressures linked to geopolitical tensions and disruptions in international supply chains.
Recent increases in global energy and food prices have continued to affect domestic markets.
The World Bank Energy Index rose to 146.4 points from 130.6 points, while the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Food Price Index increased by 1.6% to 130.7 points, marking its third consecutive monthly rise.
Economists note that sustained increases in global commodity prices could continue to influence domestic inflation, particularly through higher transportation, energy, and food costs.
Outlook remains closely watched
Inflation remains one of the most important indicators for policymakers as authorities attempt to balance economic growth with price stability.
Recent reports indicate that food prices in several major Lagos markets increased again during May, partially reversing the relief observed in April. At the same time, the cost of maintaining a healthy diet in Abuja remains significantly elevated despite the moderation in annual food inflation.
Analysts expect inflation trends in the coming months to depend on exchange-rate stability, food supply conditions, energy prices, and the effectiveness of monetary policy measures aimed at containing excess liquidity within the economy.
While the latest figures point to some improvement in the broader inflation outlook, the continued rise in headline inflation underscores the challenges facing households and businesses as they navigate a still-inflationary economic environment.
