Nigeria recorded a merchandise trade surplus of N7.55 trillion in the first quarter of 2026, representing a 340.88% increase from the N1.71 trillion surplus reported in the fourth quarter of 2025.
According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the sharp improvement was driven by stronger export earnings—particularly from crude oil—and a significant reduction in import expenditure.
What the data is saying
The NBS report showed that Nigeria’s total merchandise trade reached N34.79 trillion during the quarter, with exports accounting for more than 60% of total trade activity.
Key highlights include:
- Total merchandise trade stood at N34.79 trillion.
- Exports significantly exceeded imports, resulting in a trade surplus of N7.55 trillion.
- The trade balance improved by 340.88% compared with the N1.71 trillion surplus recorded in Q4 2025.
- Export performance was supported by stronger crude oil earnings and increasing contributions from non-oil exports.
- Import spending declined sharply, helping to widen the surplus.
What drove the improvement?
The surge in the trade surplus reflects a combination of factors:
Stronger export earnings
Crude oil remained the dominant contributor to export receipts, benefiting from sustained external demand and improved export values. Non-oil exports also continued to contribute to foreign exchange earnings, supporting overall export growth.
Lower import bill
A notable decline in imports, especially petroleum-related imports, helped reduce foreign exchange outflows. The reduction reflects Nigeria’s growing domestic refining capacity and changing import patterns.
Improved external sector position
The widening gap between exports and imports strengthened Nigeria’s external trade position and supported foreign exchange inflows into the economy.
Why it matters
A stronger trade surplus generally has positive implications for the economy:
- Supports foreign exchange reserves.
- Improves the country’s balance of payments position.
- Enhances exchange-rate stability.
- Strengthens investor confidence.
- Reduces pressure on external financing requirements.
The development comes at a time when Nigeria is pursuing reforms aimed at boosting export earnings, attracting foreign investment, and improving macroeconomic stability.
More insights
The strong trade performance complements other recent indicators pointing to resilience in Nigeria’s external sector, including:
- Higher external reserve levels.
- Improved non-oil export performance.
- Expanding regional trade opportunities under the African Continental Free Trade Area.
- Reduced dependence on imported refined petroleum products following increased domestic refining activity.
What you should know
Nigeria’s trade balance has become an increasingly important indicator as policymakers focus on strengthening external accounts and reducing vulnerabilities linked to foreign exchange shortages.
The substantial increase in the trade surplus during Q1 2026 suggests that export growth and import substitution efforts are beginning to yield measurable results, providing additional support for exchange-rate stability and broader economic recovery.
