Key members of OPEC+ are planning to continue a series of gradual oil production quota increases over the coming months, with the objective of fully restoring a previously suspended 1.65 million barrels per day (bpd) output cut by the end of September, at least on paper.
The development was reported by Bloomberg on Thursday, citing delegates familiar with the discussions.
According to the report, the group has already reinstated about two-thirds of the 2023 production cut and is expected to proceed with additional monthly quota increases in three further tranches.
However, actual output gains are expected to remain limited due to ongoing geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East, particularly tensions affecting key export routes such as the Strait of Hormuz.
What the report is saying
Delegates familiar with OPEC+ discussions told Bloomberg that the alliance is maintaining its phased approach to restoring supply, even though real production levels continue to fall short of revised quotas due to operational constraints.
▪ The group plans to fully restore the remaining portion of the 1.65 million bpd cuts by September.
▪ Three additional monthly quota increases are expected as part of the phased supply normalization plan.
▪ Recent quota hikes are largely “theoretical,” as several members are unable to meet targets due to disruptions linked to Middle East conflict.
▪ The next OPEC+ policy meeting is scheduled for June 7, where July output levels will be reviewed.
The delegates added that while quotas are being adjusted upward, some producers remain constrained by infrastructure damage, security risks, and export bottlenecks.
Backstory
Before the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, eight key OPEC+ members had begun gradually restoring output previously cut in 2023 to stabilise global oil markets.
▪ The group originally cut 1.65 million bpd in 2023 to manage supply and support prices.
▪ The United Arab Emirates recently exited OPEC, reducing the effective scope of the original agreement.
▪ Despite this, remaining members approved a modest increase of 188,000 bpd for June at their May 3 meeting.
▪ Further policy adjustments are expected at the upcoming June review for July production levels and beyond.
The ongoing conflict involving the US-Israeli alliance and Iran has further complicated supply dynamics, disrupting key export flows and reducing production across several member states.
▪ Saudi Arabia’s output reportedly fell to about 6.3 million bpd in April, the lowest level since 1990.
▪ Kuwait’s production has dropped to roughly a quarter of pre-war levels.
▪ Iraq and the UAE have also experienced significant production declines.
Despite these disruptions, OPEC+ continues to refine its longer-term production framework, including a review of members’ maximum sustainable production capacity, which is expected to guide quota decisions through 2027.
What you should know
Recent developments underscore a fragile global oil supply environment, with geopolitical tensions and production constraints continuing to shape market outcomes.
▪ OPEC countries currently account for about 40% of global crude oil output, although their market share has been gradually declining.
▪ The group previously announced a planned production increase of 206,000 bpd for May 2026 as part of its gradual output restoration strategy.
